The latest jobs numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contain an unwelcome surprise for Coloradans.
The data show Colorado added 72,700 fewer jobs than previously reported during the 12-month period ended in March — that’s nearly the number of seats at Empower Field at Mile High.
The monthly payroll estimates aren’t an exact science. The numbers often change as more complete information comes in. But this week’s revision was unusually large. The data show the U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously thought, meaning the job market across the country is substantially weaker than earlier numbers suggested. Economists are watching employment statistics for signs U.S. regulators are risking a recession by taking too long to cut interest rates.
The BLS regularly revises its monthly payroll estimates using the information it gets culled from state records tied to unemployment insurance. The updated numbers are still preliminary and won’t be finalized until next year.
Colorado had the biggest downward revision of any state by a wide margin. Missouri had the second-largest revision with 54,200 fewer jobs than initially reported.
Colorado accounted for nearly 9 percent of total U.S. revisions, which is much more than would be expected given the size of the state’s labor pool. Colorado represents less than 2 percent of the national labor force, according to Tim Wonhoff, a program manager for Colorado’s office of labor market information. That means Colorado’s share of total revisions should be about 16,000, Wonhoff said.
“Colorado’s revisions look higher than we would expect,” Wonhoff said in an emailed statement. “We are investigating and working with national partners to understand the estimate and dig into potential root cause factors.”
Colorado’s labor department has been dealing with errors in its jobs data since last year. An overhaul of the unemployment insurance system introduced mistakes in data collection, making it difficult to get a complete picture of what’s really happening with the state’s job market.
The problem is getting better, but the data is still incomplete. The state relies on businesses to report job gains and losses, but said outreach is needed to “ensure employers are meeting timely and accurate reporting.” The state labor department continues to “do manual estimations to address underreporting and late reporting,” according to Wonhoff.
Preliminary monthly data shows Colorado’s annual job growth stood at 1.5 percent in July. If the newly updated data is accurate, Colorado’s job market may actually be contracting.
